Sometimes it Doesn't Matter if What You Believe is True. It Matters Whether it is Useful.

First published on January 15, 2019

My nerves are more than a little frayed at the moment. I'm in the build up to running my group programme for coaches - The Coach's Journey - for the second time, and in the middle of this process comes Christmas and another holiday, which I'm going on at the end of the week. Compared to most of my normal business, The Coach's Journey is different, particularly because in order to run it I need several people to say 'Yes' at the same time. That's very different to the way I mostly work with new clients: finding exactly the right time to start our work for both of us, even if that is months or years after we first connect.

One of the effects of this is that I find it more stressful, and one of the things I remind myself - in the midst of a lot of vulnerability and the accompanying fear that this might not work(which I try to remind myself is always present when you are creating something... it has to be there, to go with the potentially joyous other outcome: This might work) - is that whatever happens with this programme, all the energy I am putting out into the world is having an impact, and will do in the future for my work. It is useful. I am forging new connections, reconnecting with people I hadn't been in contact with for weeks or months, creating content and sharing it in the world.

I shared this with an old friend of mine at the weekend: 'I'm tired and my nerves are a bit frayed, but I'm putting all this energy out into the world and I know it will come back.' My friend questioned this, pointing out 'That doesn't sound scientific, but I kind of get what you mean.' Now part of the confusion in this conversation may have been one of language: I do believe that there is a correlation between how often you tell people about your work, and in my case particularly how often I connect with new people, and how much business I create. But a thought occurred to me: does it matter if this is true?

I'm currently reading Matthew Syed's fascinating book, Bounce, about how it is practiceand not talent which is important for excellence and success. Among many wonderful stories from the worlds of sport and psychology and beyond, Syed speaks at length about the placebo effect. The stories include fascinating things about the way humans work - how, for instance, different coloured placebo tablets work better for different ailments - and this takes you, in the end, to a thought like the one that occurred to me: does it matter if it is true?

If the placebo works then, as Seth Godin says, it's even better than normal medicine: all of the benefits with no side effects. And this includes our beliefs. Syed tells the story of Jonathan Edwards, the British athlete who remarkably still holds the triple jump world record more than 20 years after he set it. Edwards was a very religious man while competing, but has since lost his faith. However, even in a very different spiritual and religious place to where he was while competing, Edwards has no doubt that his faith was vital in his success, allowing him to trust in himself and in God in moments when other competitors might have allowed doubt to hamper their performance. He believes this, even though he no longer believes in God.

It made me think of England captain Harry Kane, who believes, apparently, that each time he misses a chance makes it more likely he will score the next one. What I like about this is that it is almost true: it is almost a reasonable conclusion to draw based on probability. He has an average scoring ratio, and over the course of ten chances scores on average a certain number of goals, so it feels correct to say 'well, if on average I score 4/10, and I've just missed one, then there's a 4/9 chance I'll score the next one. More likely!'. Except as any secondary school mathematician can tell you, that's not how it works. It's like flipping a coin: if the coin has come up heads 49 times in a row, how likely is it it will come up heads next time? 50/50, of course. 1/2.

Which brings me back to my belief. Does it matter if putting energy out into the world in the build up for the Coach's Journey is actually likely to increase the success of my business in the longer term (even if the Coach's Journey doesn't run in 2019)? No. What matters is I need a belief to keep my resilient and in action in these two weeks, because this is what will dictate the success of the programme.

So - sometimes - it doesn't matter if what you believe is true. It matters whether it is useful.